Our Insights

One full year after China's reopening, domestic tourism during the Spring Festival saw a robust rebound, which is set to provide a welcome boost to economic activity and send positive cross-border signals about the recovery of the second largest global economy, as developed markets are hoping for a soft landing while emerging economies are facing brighter outlook in 2024.

The Brazilian economy expanded by 3.3% y/y in Q4, exhibiting a substantial rebound, accelerating from the 2% y/y growth of Q3, according to CEIC's real-time GDP nowcast ahead of the official release on March 1st. Further, the nowcast points to sustained momentum in 2024 with a projected 3.9% y/y expansion in Q1 2024.

As the world approaches the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, followed by sanctions and the banning of exports to Russia by many Western countries, there has been a notable spike in these exports to other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Even excluding the increased exports to Ukraine, exports from European Union countries to CIS nations rose over 50% year-over-year a few months after the beginning of the war, with Kyrgyzstan emerging as the major beneficiary.

India's economy is projected to have slowed down during the calendar Q4 2023 (Q3 FY2024) to 6.9% y/y from 7.6% y/y in the previous quarter, according to CEIC's GDP nowcast. This would be the second consecutive quarter in a row of decelerating economic expansion, estimated ahead of the official release by the Ministry of Statistics' release scheduled for February 29th. However, the nowcast for the current quarter, Q1 2024 (Q4 FY2024), projects substantial rebound by 10.1% y/y.